Florida State stunned Alabama in one of the biggest upsets of 2025. What was the high point of the Seminoles’ season was the low point of the Crimson Tide’s year, but also a motivator to players that sparked a run to the 12-team playoff.
Can the Seminoles pull off a second upset of the Tide? It’s not often that we’ve seen FSU (1-1) as a 19-point underdog, but that’s the scenario the team is in on Saturday at No. 10 Alabama (2-0). Optimists are always confident and pessimists are simply wondering if the Seminoles can slow down Alabama’s improved run game.
Let’s play the realist card: One team is heavily favored for a reason, which is what it’s shown through the first two games of the year. And in FSU’s case, our friends in Las Vegas pick a number because they think there’s a Grand Canyon-esque gap between the Seminoles and Tide.
Alabama is also well known for winning at home against unranked teams, a streak that would hit 90 if the Tide defeat the Seminoles on Saturday. The Roll Tide run in Bryant-Denny Stadium vs. unranked teams has been going strong for nearly two decades.
What should the game plan be? What are FSU’s strengths? How do you mask deficiencies?
FSU’s strengths are a mobile quarterback, a physical run game, kicker and punter. We have questions about the rest of the team, from the passing attack to the secondary and communication issues, pass rush and even the run defense (questioning how much New Mexico State and SMU truly want to run).
Let’s start by thinking about coach Mike Norvell’s run-pass balance in two games. Understanding that Ashton Daniels has run-pass options, so he can shift the run-pass snap counts based on how he reads the defensive end and the front, the Seminoles are still slanted heavily to the run.
FSU ran 39 times and passed 27 times against New Mexico State.
The Seminoles ran 45 times and passed 23 times vs. SMU.
Norvell’s balance is off, even though we felt the identity of the offense would be to lean on a physical run game. If FSU remains too reliant on the run, Alabama will load the box or walk safeties up and the run game will fail.
But if Norvell (and Daniels) change the thinking, Alabama playing a heavier box and bringing safeties up should open up some quick passes. Daniels needs to not be trapped into two things: A play call that directs him to hold the ball longer and an internal clock that tells him to look at his first read (and maybe the second) before throwing or scrambling to find an open receiver.
The concern with Daniels in his six games — four at Auburn in 2025 and two at FSU so far — is that he has the propensity to hold the ball too long. He must go into the game with the mindset of making quick decisions while also being cautious, ensuring that he doesn’t have costly turnovers.
Daniels’ has faced Alabama
Part of Daniels' audition, beyond the interviews at FSU back in January, were two of his performances at Auburn in 2025. Daniels passed for 353 yards and two touchdowns with 89 rushing yards in a 45-38 overtime loss at No. 16 Vanderbilt and a few weeks later he passed for 259 yards, a touchdown, an interception and ran for 108 yards in a 27-20 home loss to No. 10 Alabama.
Although they were defeats, Daniels showed he could lead the offense and put his team in a position to win against ranked teams in his first (and only) year at Auburn. Why couldn't Daniels do the same in his first (and only) year at FSU, the coaches thought?
Daniels' debut at FSU included an interception, but the Seminoles scored on six of nine drives in a 34-17 win over New Mexico State. On Labor Day, he was again under a constant pass rush and labored through a night where he was just 12 of 23 for 125 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions but also picked up 71 yards on 16 carries in a 27-24 loss to SMU.
The performances showed little connection with star receiver Duce Robinson. It's an understatement, but Daniels and the passing game must find a better rhythm behind a patchwork offensive line to complement what's been a productive ground attack.
"There's plenty of times that you see guys get knocked down," Norvell said. "If you stay down, if you hang your head, if you get caught up in whatever the situation is, and you don't have the approach for your improvement and your growth, then that's where that can continue to linger."
This week, he again praised Daniels for how he handled the bye week and "the ownership he takes" in his job and FSU's offense.
Daniels has beaten just a small number of power conference teams: Colorado and Washington State (2023), Syracuse and No. 19 Louisville (2024) and Arkansas (2025). That's it. Quarterbacks often get too much credit and blame, and there will forever be a debate over how much their win-loss records as a starter should be weighed compared to accuracy, touchdown passes and avoiding interceptions.
Make Russell a passer
The discussion on defense is tougher. Alabama will run and has a mobile quarterback. Keelon Russell has a propensity to turn it over but he’s also a dangerous runner and has quality receivers.
Alabama’s run game is far superior to a year ago. How much of that is the Tide using a mobile quarterback (Russell) vs. a more pocket passer (Ty Simpson last fall)? How much of it is Alabama has some quality tailbacks, led by 234-pound Daniel Hill? Maybe it’s both. But it’s notable that Alabama lost a pair of NFL draft picks off the offensive line and is still able to move the ball on the ground.
What should FSU do? When possible, force Russell to be a passer and not a runner. Force him to make errant throws or toss interceptions.
Should FSU also load the box and try to stuff the run, playing man on Alabama’s receivers? We’ve seen what happens when FSU’s defensive backs give too soft of a cushion or don’t put their heels at the first-down markers.
Maybe the best strategy is to force Alabama to win this one through the air. And force the Tide into third downs, which means FSU must be far better at making stops.
We’ll also be curious what impact the loss of Blake Nichelson has on the defense. FSU should have defensive lineman Darryll Desir back after he missed the SMU game due to illness. And it remains to be seen what happens with Caleb LaVallee, who had a tackle for loss and a pass breakup on a drive against the Mustangs but suffered an injury.
The availability of a few players will determine the rotations as well as the scheme vs. Alabama.
Fourth-down philosophy
When thinking about Daniel Hughes, he’s more valuable as a punter who can flip the field and perhaps produce a turnover with a helicopter-type punt. FSU’s winning the net punt yardage battle. That means Norvell should think twice about going for it on fourth downs from FSU’s side of the 50. Let Hughes do his job and make Alabama produce long drives.
This is counter to Norvell’s thinking. He goes for it on fourth down because the number of possessions across college football is down in the FBS (in part a result of the clock rules, too).
Norvell the play caller values possession. But Norvell the head coach should value field position for the defense more, too. When FSU goes for it and converts on offense, it protects the defense by giving them rest. But when FSU comes up short it creates a nightmare scenario for the defense.
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