In the preseason, most considered Pittsburgh a contender to face Miami in the ACC Championship game, but a season-ending knee injury to sophomore quarterback Mason Heintschel led to three consecutive Pitt losses. The Panthers were far more potent in the 4.5 games prior to the-injury, which occurred half way through a win at Virginia Tech. The offense was averaging 39.55 points and the defense holding folks to 12.22. But in the 4.5 games since, the offensive production has fallen to 24.22. And the defense, while still dangerous, isn’t nearly as stingy, giving up 27.79 points, 15.5 points more than in the 4.5 game before the injury.
So, you’re telling me FSU has a chance?
Yes, a chance. But my first key is in mindset when FSU visits Pittsburgh on Friday at 7 p.m. (ESPN).
Key 1: Don’t sleep on Pitt defense.
Pitt is still dangerous, and particularly so on defense where the Panthers remain No. 2 in the nation against the run (68.3 rush yards per game).
Statistically, at least, Pitt is higher ranked in total defense (No. 29 allowing 320.9) than FSU’s other final opponents, NC State (No. 82 376.7) or Florida (No. 77 367.2).
You’ll find the Panthers defense ranked among the Top 25 in a handful of other defensive categories, including sacks (No. 22, 2.78 per game) and tackles for loss (No. 16, 6.8 per game), so this will be another test for Herb Hand’s offensive line and the Seminoles’ depleted running back room.
Key 2: Young backs must grow up fast
Have we mentioned the Seminoles will play without their top three running backs as Ousmane Kromah, Sam Singleton and now Tre Wisner are out?
The Seminoles will roll with true freshman Amari Thomas (5-11, 210), who played at nearby Blountstown High, and Zay Parks (5-11, 204) who hails from Crestview. Combined, the two RBs had only four carries for 12 yards in the first seven games, all credited to Thomas.
But Thomas didn’t flinch in his first start at Boston College, earning ACC Rookie of the Week honors. Thomas rushed for 98 yards on 19 carries, with two touchdowns, including the game winner with 2:29 remaining in the game. But need I remind you, BC was ranked No. 78 against the run.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Thomas, the No. 177 best overall player in the nation and the No. 11 running back coming out of high school, be up to the test. And he will need to be. In his senior season, Thomas rushed for 1,799 yards on 117 carries — a glaring 15.37 yards per carry – with 21 touchdowns. He added 189 yards on seven receptions – 27 yards per reception – with three touchdowns.
Bottom line is he’s young, played well in his first start, but will have to pass a stiffer test against Pitt.
Did I mention Pitt allows just 2.24 yards per carry, which is No. 1 in the nation?
It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Tim Harris helps Thomas throughout the game either with Parks, who had 15 carries for 95 yards in 2025, or in a more creative way.
Key 3: Test run, prepare to emphasize pass
Granted Pitt’s run defense is tough but, as Harris did against Boston College, he needs to be prepared to challenge it while also having an aerial attack plan because Pitt has been vulnerable to the pass.
Sometimes you can set up the run with the pass and this may be one of those times.
Opponents have completed 63.4 percent of passes, averaged 11.84 yards per completion and scored 13 times through the air.
There is evidence of vulnerability in the Team Efficiency Passing Defense where opponents have had an efficiency of 134.16, pushing Pitt down to a No. 81 national ranking.
Furthermore, the Panthers rank No. 123 in pass defense, surrendering 252.6 yards per game.
There’s no question Pitt has been solid defensively, ranking No. 15 in the red zone and No. 32 in scoring defense, but the Panthers have shown enough vulnerability to build a game plan featuring the pass.
Ashton Daniels’ pass efficiency rating is up to No. 49 at 143.28 with a 59.2 completion rate, 14 TDs against those 12 interceptions. He is also No. 2 in the nation for yards per completion (15.09) and No. 13 in yards per attempt (8.84).
Trust him. Trust Danzy deep and receivers Boggs, Lopez and Devin Carter in a special package you can prepare him to execute.
Key 4: Use caution on 4th down
Pitt’s defense is No. 42 on third-down defense, with opponents converting on 45 of 127 attempts (35.4 percent), but Rick Stockstill needs to make a note to self – Pitt is the No. 1 defense in stopping fourth-down conversions. Opponents have converted only 4 of 15 (26.7 percent).
Key 5: Keep Pitt under 24
With Pitt’s defense it may be tough for FSU to muster more than 24 points, so one key is to hold Pitt under 24. The Panthers are averaging 24.22 points in the 4.5 games with Holden Gernier, a fifth-year senior from Texas State, at the helm. In the first eight games, FSU’s No. 101-ranked defense has given up 28.33 points, including 24 at Boston College last week under interim defensive coordinator Ernie Sims.
While it will be a challenge for the Seminoles to shave those points, it will be a key against two quarterbacks who combined have averaged just 226.7 yards per game. The Seminoles are ranked No. 110 in pass defense allowing 239 yards per game.
Gernier, who spent three years at Auburn, has a 58 percent completion rate, 147.7 yard average and Corey Dailey has a 48.5 percent completion, with a 79 yards per game average.
Their TD to INT ratio is 7 TDs to 5 INTs, so this is an opportunity for the FSU secondary to contribute to the win.
And neither quarterback is a gifted runner — combined they’ve netted 47 yards on 25 runs, gaining 82 yards, but losing 35.
The Panthers’ top back is also a freshman Damon Ferguson (5-11, 190), who averages 5.4 ypc and Nick James (4.0 ypc). Ranked No. 53 for rushing offense, the Panthers average 167.7 yards per game and 4.53 per carry with 14 TDs. FSU’s run defense is ranked No. 104, giving up 173.3 ypg, 4.67 ypc and 15 TDs.
Hidden Yardage
The key to every game is finding hidden yardage in penalties, turnovers and special teams. Statistically, there’s no clear winner here.
Pitt is no stranger to a penalty flag, averaging 80.11 yards per game. That’s worse than all but four teams in the country. By comparison, FSU is No. 73 averaging 55.78 yards. Play clean and FSU could find 25 hidden yards there.
Pitt can more than make up those yards if the Seminoles don’t take care of the ball as well as they did at BC. With a plus two, Pitt is No. 50 in turnover margin (gain 13, lost 11) while FSU is ranked No. 127 with a negative 7, (8 Gain, lost 15).
Daniels had one interception against BC but FSU is ranked last with 12 interceptions thus far this season.
Neither team is good with kickoff returns (FSU No. 91, Pitt No. 115) or coverage (Pitt No.
The two teams are similar with the punt game. FSU is No.39 in punt return defense, 5.89 yards, Pitt No. 45, 6.36 yards). Net punting Pitt is No. 48 (40.53 yards) and FSU is No. 65 (39.85 net).
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