There is a roadmap to Florida State winning on Friday night in Louisville: Avoid a shootout at all costs.
Run the football. Sustain long drives that control the clock.
Commit to quick passes. Sustain long drives or use the speed and get some points in under two minutes.
The prospect of a win is built around either option but it’s about maximizing drives and finishing in the red zone. The Seminoles (3-2, 1-1 ACC) have scored 34 or more points in four games. And they have scored on 21 of 21 red-zone drives, with 17 of those being touchdowns.
In a normal situation, anyone should feel good about 30+ points being more than good enough to win football games. But with the inconsistency of this 2026 defense and the recent history of the Seminoles, who haven’t won an ACC road game in 35 months, there are doubts about football logic.
But there are also reasons to be realistic that FSU (3-2, 1-1 ACC) can defeat Louisville (2-3, 1-2) on Friday at 7 p.m. (ESPN). Louisville fumbled three times in the loss to NC State. A turnover or two would help.
FSU’s defense could opt to play more five-man fronts, which it showed against Virginia. But Louisville’s Lincoln Kienholz is a better passer than Virginia’s Beau Pribula, so that is an option that’s in the toolbox but it won’t work as the only tool the Seminoles use. Kienholz is a 69.1 percent passer (nine touchdowns and one interception), and the Cardinals also have exceptional skill talent.
Leading rusher Keyjuan Brown (367 rushing yards, three touchdowns) is questionable for the Cardinals, which means they would lean on Isaac Brown (322 rushing yards, two touchdowns). Isaac Brown, a Miami native, had 125 rushing yards in the loss at NC State.
FSU transfer receiver Lawayne McCoy is averaging 20.1 yards per catch at Louisville.
Regardless of what defensive front FSU implements, or how the looks change drive to drive, the offense needs to be efficient and max out the drives. Louisville’s defense is 113th in scoring defense in the FBS, allowing 29.2 points per game. FSU should be able to finish drives with points, preferably touchdowns.
Red-zone efficiency
Florida State scored on 80 percent of its drives into the red zone in 2025, with a 64.9 percent touchdown rate. Both were toward the bottom of the FBS.
The play caller and personnel are dramatically different, but then so are the results in 2026. FSU is one of 11 FBS teams that have scored on every red-zone trip (21), and the Seminoles have scored a touchdown on 17 of those opportunities (80.9 percent).
"Coming out of the season we did a study on our red zone," FSU offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr. said. "We knew that was an area that we struggled. A lot of it was just us doing it to ourselves."
When Gus Malzahn retired in February, FSU coach Mike Norvell took over play-calling and elevated Harris to coordinator (he had been the receivers' coach in 2025). With Harris helping devise the game plan during the week and advising Norvell, the Seminoles have scored consistently (all but two quarters across five games) despite fielding a starting 11 that has a new quarterback in Ashton Daniels and four new transfer linemen starting.
The Seminoles finished 5-7 in large part because of struggles on the road to finish drives with points (13 at Stanford, 10 at Clemson, 11 at NC State and 21 at Florida). FSU has only played one road game in 2026, a 50-36 loss at Alabama, although the offense converted on all five of its red-zone trips.
"This was something that we knew had to be better," Norvell said. "You learn from experience. You also make sure you have a plan. ... Different ways you're going to attack. You got players that buy into that, too. When we get down there we want points on the board and specifically we want six. Our guys have taken great ownership."
Run often, make most of quick passes
FSU has one of the most consistent runners in the ACC in Ousmane Kromah, who has 80 or more yards in each game. Kromah is fourth in the ACC in rushing (95.4 yards), forced a season-high seven missed tackles in the win over Virginia and has forced 28 in five games, according to Pro Football Focus.
Daniels has his flaws: He's completing just 60.3 percent of his passes and has six interceptions (he’s 13th in the ACC in completion percentage). But Daniels also has his strengths: He's thrown six touchdown passes, has nine rushing touchdowns (third in the FBS) and has made the right decisions inside the opponents' 20-yard line.
We saw the best and worst of Daniels in the loss to Alabama, where he threw for 377 yards but also tossed three interceptions. The roadmap to a win can’t be for the Seminoles to fall behind and be forced to rally with Daniels as a passer. He was in that spot in Tuscaloosa, and Daniels completed 17 of 29 passes. Add in the interceptions and it wasn’t enough, although if the defense generates a few more stops this is a different conversation.
But we did see some of Daniels’ best passing moments early in the Alabama game. He stuck to the script and delivered quick, decisive passes in the first quarter and early in the second quarter. FSU led 21-6 after 21 minutes before Alabama countered and used a second lightning delay to regroup. It’s worth noting Duce Robinson had six catches for 135 yards against Alabama, his best day in five games.
Norvell and FSU’s staff need to take the best of Daniels — quick decisions and passes to Robinson — and mesh it with the ground game on Friday night.
Quick drives. Sustained drives. Does it matter? Maybe the preference is drives that take more time off the clock and result in touchdowns. But FSU’s best shot on Friday is for the offense to be prepared for a shootout while we see if the defense can grow off an impressive 45 minutes against Virginia.
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