Let's get the history refresher out of the way first: Florida State hasn't won an ACC road game in more than two calendar years. And the Seminoles haven't won at NC State in their last three trips.
Unfortunately, there's more. NC State is 10-3 at home in November since the 2020 season.
The history is on NC State's side. So are the intangibles, from NC State's rowdy fans to the tight sideline to FSU playing a fourth road game at night. FSU will again have a long wait, sitting around their hotel rooms until Friday's game in Raleigh, N.C.
FSU (5-5, 2-5 ACC) tries to secure a trip to a bowl game and bring an end to a miserable streak on Friday at NC State (5-5, 2-4) at 8 p.m. (ESPN).
What do the Seminoles need to do? FSU hasn’t scored in the first quarter of any of its road games. And the Seminoles haven’t scored in the first quarter of their last four games, which includes two home wins (Wake Forest and Virginia Tech). FSU needs to start there, with a positive start, and must avoid deficits like it faced at Clemson (trailing 18-0 with 2:31 to halftime).
The Seminoles have also not been efficient enough on third downs, 6 for 15 at Virginia, 8 for 19 at Stanford and 5 for 15 at Clemson. They were also 1 for 3 on fourth downs at Stanford and Clemson. And the Seminoles were just 2 of 4 on red-zone trips in the last two losses.
“We got to do a better job offensively,” FSU offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn said. “Got to come out the gate faster and play a little more free, too. Short week, usually you’re maybe a little simpler. On the road and let our guys play fast and not think about so much. I think that will be a big key, too.”
The Osceola staff takes a look at some keys to a win over NC State:
Nick Carlisle
Score Early and Often: Contrary to what you would believe, Florida State has really struggled to score on its scripted drives and only really gets into a flow offensively when the game becomes a bit more loose in the second quarter. Defensively, NC State's defense is not good - ranked 118th in the country in scoring defense while allowing 31.6 points per game. This should be a defense that Gus Malzahn devours. But Florida State has struggled offensively on the road and we thought they would be able to take advantage of a similarly suspect defense when the Seminoles faced Stanford. Perhaps the variable is the health of Tommy Castellanos, who appears to be back to his early year form. It is absolutely crucial for Florida State to find success early or else Carter-Finley Stadium becomes a factor.
Contain Bailey and the Passing Offense: In the games that NC State had upset ranked Georgia Tech and Virginia, Bailey combined for 540 yards and three touchdowns - hitting on 72% of his passes (40 - 55). He has thrown for just over 2,500 yards, 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Those interceptions come in bunches — three against Notre Dame, two against Miami and three against Duke. Bailey is on trajectory to be one of the ACC's best quarterbacks returning next year and he has started two full seasons for the Wolfpack. But as much as he has shown the ability to be an effective and efficient passer, he also tends to turn the ball over in bunches - especially in games that they fall behind.
Prediction: I'm sipping the kool-aid on a streak-ending road victory in Raleigh... Florida State 34 - 27 NC State
Bob Ferrante
Start fast, finish drives: In FSU’s three road losses, there have been common themes. Among them: No points in the first quarter at Virginia, Stanford and Clemson, coupled with falling short when in opposing territory as FSU scored just 13 points vs. the Cardinal and 10 points vs. the Tigers. NC State has been on the winning and losing sides of a shootout. FSU lost a shootout at Virginia and another to Pittsburgh. The Seminoles can’t start slow and then be forced to rally, let alone try to win a shootout.
Smother Smothers: FSU defensive coordinator Tony White wasn’t happy with the physicality up front after Virginia Tech picked up 238 yards on 41 carries. Now the Seminoles face Smothers and an NC State ground attack that has been dangerous yet inconsistent (80th in FBS, 147 rushing yards per game). Is Smothers recovered from his injury? Will the Seminoles be tougher up front?
Prediction: I've picked FSU to win at Virginia, Stanford and Clemson. So I won't be fooled again. I'm picking the Wolfpack simply because they're a far better team at home, ignoring that they were crushed by Miami and Notre Dame. NC State 31, FSU 27 ... And I'll be thrilled if my personal streak is extended and I'm wrong.
