Stats can back up an argument. They can tell a story.

They can also fail to tell the whole story.

As bizarre as this sounds, the Florida State football team made significant improvement (statistically speaking) in 2025 and ranked among the top 50 FBS teams in most major offensive and defensive team stats. The numbers are not just dramatically better than the miserable totals of 2024 but also stack up favorably compared to the 13-1 team in 2023.

Look at the numbers below, without watching any games, and it looks like a decent team. It looks like a team that was better than 5-7, no doubt.

FSU was among the top 10 in total offense (yards per game) and was a top-15 rush offense. The Seminoles even scored 33 points per game, just off 2023’s point total. The defense took a step forward, until it faltered badly at Florida, but ended up allowing fewer rushing yards than the 2023 team.

Comparing 2023 FSU to 2024 FSU and 2025 FSU

What are the inherent flaws in the numbers? All three seasons are boosted by guarantee games against FCS opponents.

The 2023 totals are a blend of a high-octane offense with Jordan Travis and subsequent struggles with Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn (not to mention skewed by a severely shorthanded offense in the Orange Bowl). And the 2025 team’s inconsistencies, mostly on offense and on the road, can be masked over a larger sample size of 12 games. The 2023 FSU team also played a tougher schedule (36th in 2023 vs. 47th in 2025 in ESPN’s strength of schedule metrics).

But the biggest lesson learned is the value of turnover margin, finishing drives on offense and defending the run. When FSU was on the positive side of the turnover margin, converted on red-zone opportunities and limited the opponent’s run game, they were able to be competitive or win.

FSU was a miserable -16 in turnover margin in 2024. Perhaps the biggest disappointment is the Seminoles grabbed more takeaways (six in 2024 to 14 in 2025) but still had a turnover margin of -5.

The turnover margin was level for FSU at Virginia (each team had three). But FSU’s turnovers were costly that night. And they continued to be a factor (to varying degrees) in losses to the likes of Miami (one fumble), Pittsburgh (one fumble vs. two INTs gained), Clemson (one fumble, one interception and none gained), NC State (four lost, none gained) and Florida (one interception, one fumble vs. just one gained).

The Seminoles were able to build drives and reached the red zone 57 times in 2025 (compared to 27 in 2024 and 55 in 2023). But the flaw for FSU was in the touchdown conversion rate: In 2025, FSU scored a touchdown on 37 of those 57 red-zone trips.

And FSU’s run defense had its moments, finishing the year at 138.1 yards allowed per game. It was the best for an FSU defense since 2017. But the Seminoles’ rush defense didn’t hold up well in losses to Florida (272 yards) and Virginia (211 yards).

It’s these three measures that show why FSU took a step forward compared to 2024 but the statistical improvement wasn’t reflected in the win-loss column.

Can we project anything forward to 2026?

With how rosters change, the best answer is not really.

But one intangible with turnovers: Defensive players who now have a better comfort and understanding of Tony White’s scheme could be more confident and be more inclined through experience on the practice field or game days to try to strip away a fumble. And perhaps their pre-snap alignment or understanding of White’s scheme allows them to be in a better position to grab an interception. FSU’s run defense could also improve in 2026 given familiarity in White’s scheme.

That’s a tough projection when rosters for 2026 are still fluid. But this 2025 team is an example of one that could have won a few more games if the Seminoles created more takeaways, protected the ball better on offense and stopped the run with more consistency.

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