FSU (7-11, 0-5 ACC) at Miami (15-3, 4-1 ACC)
Time: Tuesday at 7 p.m.
TV: ACC Network.
KenPom rankings: FSU is 112, Miami is 31.
Coaches: Jai Lucas is off to a 15-3 start in his first year at Miami. Lucas had been an assistant at Duke for the prior three seasons. Luke Loucks is seeking his first ACC win.
Streaks: FSU has lost five straight games. Miami had won 10 straight games prior to a 69-59 loss at KenPom No. 26 Clemson on Saturday.
Notable wins / losses: Miami’s three losses are to No. 9 Florida and No. 15 BYU in November as well as Clemson. The Hurricanes’ best wins have been at KenPom No. 59 Mississippi 75-66 on Dec. 2 and at No. 61 Wake 81-77 on Jan. 7. FSU continues to face the toughest ACC teams early in the league’s slate: No. 36 UNC, No. 3 Duke, No. 30 NC State, No. 68 Syracuse, No. 61 Wake Forest and now No. 31 Miami.
Of note: Longtime FSU assistant coach Charlton Young is in his first year on Miami’s staff. Young was at FSU from 2013-22 and was known as one of the staff’s top recruiters as well as developer of underrated gems like Devin Vassell and Terance Mann … While the ACC schedule has been daunting, there are some “winnable” games ahead as FSU hosts California on Jan. 28 and Stanford on Jan. 31. KenPom gives FSU a 45 percent and 46 percent chance to win those games, respectively.
FSU stats: Thomas Bassong played a season-high 29 minutes in the loss to Wake. He had 11 points (hitting 2 of 4 3-pointers) and five rebounds. Robert McCray is averaging 13.6 points and 6.5 assists but he had seven turnovers in the loss at Syracuse and 11 in the loss vs. Wake, including one in the final seconds. Chauncey Wiggins is averaging 13.8 points and 4 rebounds. Kobe Magee is averaging 11.8 points but went 0 for 3 from the floor and had non points in the loss to Wake.
Miami stats: Tallahassee native Trey Donaldson is averaging career highs with 16.3 points and 6.5 assists. The 6-3, 198-pound Donaldson began his career at Auburn before playing at Michigan in 2024-25. Malik Reneau (6-9, 238) is making 56.4 percent of his shots from the floor, and he averages 19.8 points and 6.4 rebounds.
Quotable: The Osceola asked Luke Loucks about the team’s up-and-down shooting from 3-point range but also the struggles in the second half, as FSU was 1 for 15 from beyond the arc. We asked Loucks to quantify how many of those 15 were viewed as good looks upon review (or not).
“We have a couple of different tools,” Loucks said. “We use analytical software and then, obviously, as coaches, we use our eyes and watch film. We have a grading system on our 3-point attempts: Good, neutral and bad. Out of those 15 attempts in the second half, I don't have it in front of me, but I think nine of them were neutral or bad, and we made zero of them. And so it's a tough way to live when you're not generating good looks.
“Part of that, maybe it was a little bit due to Wake Forest's defense. Maybe it was a little bit due to our offense and the rate at which we were turning the ball over. But to generate a good look from a 3-point attempt, the way we graded it, it has to be catch and shoot, it has to be in rhythm and it can't be heavily contested.
“And so the way to generate those is to play fast in transition, which Miami does a great job of or break down an opponent with a dribble-drive and get in the paint. And when you get in the paint, you collapse the defense, and then when the defense collapses, you kick it out. And usually that generates an open shot on catch, or the one pass extra generates a great shot. And we just didn't generate those in the second half. And so those were the results. When you don't generate great looks, the efficiency drops. And those shots, you can still make them, they're just much more difficult to make on average.”
