Florida State opens the 2025 season against Alabama on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. (ABC). The Osceola’s Jerry Kutz, Bob Ferrante and Nick Carlisle give their thoughts on what we think are critical aspects of the matchup and keys to an FSU win over Alabama.
Jerry Kutz
Run less, throw more?
Alabama is breaking in a relatively inexperienced quarterback in Ty Simpson, a five-star dual-threat quarterback who has thrown just 50 passes in three seasons. One would think they’d like to allow Simpson time to settle his nerves with a solid running game in the season opener but with their top three leading rushers gone from 2024, more than 90 percent of their rushing production, will they be able to afford him that luxury?
With second-leading rusher Jam Miller out with injury, Bama turns to Richard Young and Daniel Hill, who had 48 of Alabama’s carries 212 yards and three touchdowns. Bama sources say quarterback Simpson is a dual-threat quarterback, but can he carry the load Jalen Milroe bore last year, with half of Bama’s 41 rushing touchdowns?
Expect to see Bama pivot to more of a passing game with Simpson and a veteran receiving corps returning better than 50 percent of 2024 production and adding Miami transfer Isaiah Horton and young talent.
This war will be won in the trench
I’m a big believer in trench warfare and to the victor will go the spoils on Saturday. The big uglies will be the center of my attention. Bama comes into this game with some advantages on both sides of the ball, but with some questions of their own with the loss of a projected first-round pick at nose guard and with the potential loss of the starting right tackle if he does not pass concussion protocol. The loss of running back Jam Miller may diminish Bama’s pass protection schemes.
Osceola football analyst Mark Salva addresses an important question about the importance of continuity on the offensive line with five new starters who have never played together before, four of whom have never played for the offensive line coach or for the offensive coordinator who likes to play fast.
What could possibly go wrong?
Mark shares his four years as an FSU offensive lineman and a decade as a line coach to explain how important continuity is on the line and concerns about how far along the FSU offensive line can be in six months, especially when they were held out of missed spring practices with injuries.
Pay attention to the centers, both of them, as they are the quarterbacks of the line. Watch what they do during and after the play and on the sidelines between series, especially if their units are struggling.
FSU has a quality center in Luke Petitbon, who Mike Norvell and offensive line coach Herb Hand have effused lavish compliments for his leadership of the unit. Watch his interactions. Bama has a dandy too in Parker Brailsford, who Pro Football Focus said was the second most productive center in the nation last year.
Darrell Jackson will line up against Brailsford. Jackson is 6-foot-6, 335 pounds and Brailsford is 6-2, 290 — so I’ll be looking to see if Brailsford can neutralize Jackson or whether Bama will have to commit additional resources to the task. I think that battle will have as much to do with the scoreboard as anything. If Jackson commands additional help, he will have done his job simply by giving his teammates better opportunities.
Bama has had some issues in pass pro and in short-yardage situations and the fact their No. 1 back is out, and their starting right tackle may be out too, will only help FSU’s opportunity to win the battle of the trench.
Nick Carlisle
Stop the run early
There are three certainties in life. Death, taxes and Alabama wanting to establish the run. Even without starting running back Bam Miller in the backfield, Alabama will want to get the run game going to help ween Ty Simpson into a tough road environment. If Florida State's front seven can stop the run early and force Simpson into proving himself as a passer, FSU should be in this game in the fourth quarter. We've heard a lot about how Tony White's defense can be as confusing as it is opportunistic. Sitting back in zone coverage on an obvious passing down with a green QB seems like a recipe for success.
No extra possessions
In a weird way, Tommy Castellanos will have to prove that he both is and is not the quarterback that he was at Boston College. Elusiveness and athleticism will be welcomed, getting behind the sticks and turning the ball over will not. Granted Castellanos did throw fewer interceptions in his one year under Bill O'Brien, but fumbles became more of a problem. We're hitting on all the classics here when it comes to Castellanos' reputation but giving Alabama extra possessions is a kiss of death. Don't take too many risks with the ball, play the field position game, make them drive the field with a young quarterback.
Prediction: I don't expect FSU to win this game. But I do think we'll get a competitive game until the fourth quarter where the better team takes the reigns and it becomes a two possession game.
Alabama 31, FSU 21
Bob Ferrante
Who runs with the most consistency?
This is a worn-out cliché, but a reliable key in many games. FSU was 129th among the 134 FBS teams in rush offense (89.9 rushing yards per game) and 107th in rush defense (184.6 rushing yards per game) in 2024. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn wants to run and had top-5 rush offenses at UCF, while White had top-25 rush defenses at Nebraska. Can FSU run and defend the Alabama ground attack? It’s one that won’t have Miller but will have Louisiana transfer Dre Washington (1,343 yards, nine TDs in four seasons).
New pieces for FSU vs. new pieces for Alabama
FSU will feature nine first-year transfers starting on offense, including four on the offensive line. Will there be communication or continuity issues, especially in a new scheme under Malzahn? And while there are four new transfers expected to start for FSU on defense, the same can be said about a new scheme under Tony White. The Crimson Tide didn’t release a preseason depth chart, but Alabama could be down three starters (Miller, defensive lineman Tim Keenan and offensive lineman Jaeden Roberts, although he has been “very, very limited,” according to coach Kalen DeBoer) and had seven NFL draft picks (including first-rounders in OL Tyler Booker and LB Jihaad Campbell). There aren’t any preseason games, and this feels like a lot of “new” for FSU and Alabama — it’s an intangible that could lead to mistakes or turnovers.
Alabama 31, FSU 23
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