Florida State will win and go to a bowl. Or Florida will win and spoil a rival’s chance to extend the season.
Neither team has been very good. Both are coming off disappointing losses — FSU making mistake after mistake on offense and special teams at NC State and Florida looking dysfunctional and being shut down by Tennessee in the first half in a blowout loss.
But regardless of whether Florida is 8-3 or 3-8, an FSU win would be a very positive finish to a wild season for the Seminoles. And, yes, not just would they bookend the season with victories over SEC teams, the Seminoles would also have as many wins vs. that conference as the ACC. Bizarre times, right?
We know what FSU does wrong on the road — start slow, fail to finish drives, commit turnovers and penalties — and technically the key to the game is the winner will be the one that makes the fewest mistakes. But let’s get into it, as FSU plays at Florida on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (ESPN2).
Jerry Kutz
How do you predict a rivalry game, especially one between Florida State and Florida, let alone where both have had Jekyll and Hyde moments, often within one game?
Question No. 1 is always this: Who has the most highly-rated players on their two-deep roster? I took a deep dive with the notion that UF’s roster would look like Alabama, Miami or Clemson with more four- and five-star players. After all, Billy Napier came to Gainesville with a reputation as being a stronger recruiter than Mike Norvell. And because UF has the benefit of $40 million more SEC multi media marketing revenue each year to work with than its ACC rival. But I was surprised to find the FSU and UF rosters are mirror images of each other:
UF lists 59 players on its depth chart while FSU lists three less. Here’s the breakdown:
5-star: Each list one, UF’s DJ Lagway and FSU’s Duce Robinson.
4-star: The Gators list 31, FSU 28.
3-star: Each list 24.
0-star (or can’t find): Each team lists three players I couldn’t find a rating.
Manage UF’s defensive front
While the Gators talent advantage overall is negligible, their defensive front is as impressive on paper as they are on the grass, with five of their six starters four-star players. The one 3-star, Brendan Bett, was the 3rd most efficient interior lineman in the country (PFF) as a true freshman at Baylor in 2024. While the front four is long and active, the linebackers are not long at 6-0 1/2 228.
The trench battle will be a challenge for FSU’s offense.
Road woes?
I know FSU is better at home than on the road but have no clue as to how Norvell will turn FSU’s road fortunes, I just know it’s a key to who will win this game.
Don’t beat yourself: According to Mickey Andrews, this was Bear Bryant’s first rule of winning and mentioned it’s easier to say than to do. Manage crowd noise and the temptation to punch folks in the face is step one to avoiding penalties, turnovers and other stupid stuff that has beat FSU on the road.
Jim Gladden’s Golden Rule is the team that wins the kicking game usually wins the football game. Wise words.
I will never pick against FSU, so let’s just call this game 21-17 and you fill in who wins.
Bob Ferrante
Run it early, often and don’t stop
A very, very telling stat and a hat tip to Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel: Florida has allowed 718 rushing yards in its last three games after giving up 962 rushing yards in the first eight games. Kentucky ran for 233 yards (5.3 yards per carry), Ole Miss ran for 237 yards (4.9 yards per carry) and Tennessee ran for 248 yards (4.9 yards per carry).
That’s a very good trend for the Seminoles, who ran for 237 yards in a win over Virginia Tech and 180 yards in the loss at NC State. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn said after the Clemson loss that FSU is a “run/play-action team” and can’t drop back 40 times but expect to be efficient and win games. So FSU needs to prioritize the run (and commit to a steady rotation of backs), while mixing in some vertical passes from Tommy Castellanos to Duce Robinson.
Load the box and limit Baugh
Florida’s Jadan Baugh has 904 rushing yards and six touchdowns with 33 receptions for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU should sell out to stop the run, which means it could be a busy day for rover Earl Little Jr. to charge in from the secondary and make stops.
With DJ Lagway being a model of inconsistency, FSU should force Lagway to evade the pass rush and deliver passes to open receivers while on the move.
FSU’s defense has held its last five opponents to 17.2 points per game. Florida is averaging just 15.5 points in four games under interim head coach Billy Gonzales. This game feels very winnable if the Seminoles keep the Gators under 20 points.
Prediction: Defending Baugh and his ability to extend drives scares me. FSU’s offense on the road has also been frightening to watch. Similar to my pick last week, taking NC State over FSU, I’ll be happy to be wrong. Florida 17, FSU 13
