We’ve seen an offense made for efficiency (2022). We’ve seen an offense made for playmakers (2023). And we’ve seen an offense that was made for change (2024).
Florida State’s offenses have been everywhere from one of the best in the ACC to one of the nation’s worst in seemingly a narrow amount of time. What are realistic expectations from FSU’s offense in 2025?
An achievable goal would be efficiency. Let’s define it by some essentials of an efficient offense, focusing on yards per carry, completion percentage, third-down conversion rate and red-zone success.
We’re cutting out some valuable data. Penalties can be drive-killers and turnovers can turn around games. Starting field position is often hidden. And we all know Mike Norvell loves to go for it on fourth down.
But let’s start with these four categories and see how it correlates with FSU’s offenses in the Norvell years, UCF’s offenses in Gus Malzahn’s four years (2021-24) and then project it to the current team.
Yards per carry
2024 — FSU was 132nd (2.85 yards), UCF was 4th in FBS (5.77 yards)
2023 — FSU was 46th in FBS (4.54 yards), UCF was 5th in FBS (5.61 yards)
2022 — FSU was 8th in FBS (5.47 yards), UCF was 19th in FBS (5.2 yards)
2021 — FSU was 40th in FBS (4.78 yards), UCF was 11th in FBS (5.36 yards)
2020 — FSU was 23rd in FBS (5.11 yards)
This is the most encouraging stat for FSU’s offense going into 2025. Aside from the abysmal FSU rush attack in 2024, all of the Seminoles’ ground attacks were comfortably in the top 50 annually. And UCF was among the top 20 annually under Malzahn.
FSU in 2025 will make running its identity. And the Seminoles will have a mobile quarterback in Tommy Castellanos, who ran for 1,113 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns at BC in 2023. We have no idea how a new-look line will perform.
Conclusion: The addition of Oklahoma transfer Gavin Sawchuk and freshman Ousmane Kromah, coupled with Roydell Williams and Kam Davis, help the outlook of the run game this fall. And Castellanos is a clear-cut plus in the run game.
Completion percentage
2024 — FSU was 130th in FBS (50.4 percent), UCF was 100th (58.2 percent)
2023 — FSU was 77th in FBS (60.0 percent), UCF was 54th at (62.6 percent)
2022 — FSU was 45th in FBS (63.0 percent), UCF was 31st (64.5 percent)
2021 — FSU was 62nd in FBS (61.5 percent), UCF was 30th (64.6 percent)
2020 — FSU was 112th in FBS (54.5 percent)
Castellanos has two seasons with opposite numbers, one where he was a mobile runner and picked up more than 1,000 rushing yards but also 14 interceptions. And then another where he was a drop-back passer and had just five interceptions while improving his completion percentage to 61.5.
It's tough to project given all the variables. We think we know what Castellanos is given what he’s shown in two seasons at BC. But if Malzahn brings out the best in Castellanos as a passer, emphasizing plays and routes that build the quarterback’s confidence, the Seminoles could be efficient again through the air.
Conclusion: FSU has more productive talent at tight end and receiver. The Seminoles have Jaylin Lucas back, too. If the line is able to give Castellanos more time? He should be accurate. How much is a debate.
Third-down conversion rate
2024 — FSU was 131st in FBS (28.8 percent), UCF was 58th (41.6 percent)
2023 — FSU was 94th in FBS (36.3 percent), UCF was 4th (50 percent)
2022 — FSU was 4th in FBS (51.2 percent), UCF was 24th (45.6 percent)
2021 — FSU was 105th in FBS (34.9 percent), UCF was 83rd (37.9 percent)
2020 — FSU was 101st in FBS (35.6 percent)
We think FSU will be committed to achieving success on the ground and aren’t sure how accurate Castellanos can be. But can Castellanos’ mobility be a difference maker on third-and-short?
First, a reminder that both things can be true: FSU must improve on first and second downs, not making third down unmanageable.
If FSU is in third-and-2 or third-and-1, how much more often can the Seminoles sustain drives whether by an efficient ground game or a mobile quarterback who buys time to throw? The bet here is FSU’s efficiency on third downs will increase dramatically. And how tempted will Norvell be to go for it on fourth-and-1 with Castellanos at quarterback? Often.
Conclusion: The game is about sustaining drives, and there are reasons to be encouraged here.
Red-zone efficiency
2024 — FSU was 60th in FBS (85.2 percent) but scored a TD on 51.8 percent of red zone trips, UCF was 47th (86.7 percent) and scored a TD on 71.1 percent of red zone trips
2023 — FSU was 45th in FBS (87.3 percent) but scored a TD on 60 percent of red-zone trips, UCF was 116th (75.5 percent) and scored a TD on 60.4 percent of red-zone trips
2022 — FSU was 60th in FBS (84.85 percent) but scored a TD on 69.7 percent of red-zone trips, UCF was 104th (78.8 percent) and scored a TD on 62.2 percent of red-zone trips
2021 — FSU was 16th in FBS (90.5 percent) and scored a TD on 73.8 percent of red-zone trips, UCF was 59th (84.5 percent) and scored a TD on 72.4 percent of red-zone trips
2020 — FSU was 111th in FBS (74.2 percent) but scored a TD on 61.3 percent of red-zone trips
We said the game is about sustaining drives, but it’s also about finishing them off with points as often as you can. FSU scored a touchdown on just 51.8 percent of its red-zone trips in 2024, which meant Ryan Fitzgerald made his kicks — but the Seminoles settled for three points.
It can be tough to run near the goal line. Can FSU be more physical up front and tougher at running back? Those are big questions, but the Seminoles have some bigger backs like Sawchuk and Kromah to complement Williams and Davis.
FSU has more playmakers at receiver and tight end this fall compared to 2024. We’d have to argue the Seminoles have more tall options, from Duce Robinson and Elijah Moore to Markeston Douglas and Randy Pittman.
Conclusion: FSU has the personnel to win the 1-on-1 battles. The Seminoles should be better and need to be significantly better than last fall.
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