Florida State helped its chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament with an 11-0 rout of NC State on Friday night. It was the last opportunity to show the NCAA Selection Committee that it is worthy of a spot in the field of 64.
This may be a stressful weekend but projections by D1baseball.com and Baseball America both have FSU in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles will find out on Monday at noon (TV: ESPNU) if they are in and where they are headed for a four-team regional.
The Seminoles have played in the NCAA Regional in each of coach Mike Martin’s 39 seasons as head coach. This would be their first regional on the road since playing in Connecticut in 2010.
Let’s take a look at where FSU stands:
Record / RPI: FSU is 36-21 / No. 49 RPI (up four spots after Friday’s win over the Wolfpack).
Positives of FSU’s resume: Four straight ACC series wins against RPI 38 Clemson, RPI 48 Virginia, RPI 54 Wake Forest and RPI 190 Pittsburgh. The series against the Tigers was a high point as it was a three-game sweep by a combined score of 28-8. They won six of 10 ACC series.
Negatives of FSU’s resume: A three-game midweek sweep to RPI 26 Florida. Weekend series losses to the likes of RPI 18 Miami, RPI 19 NC State and RPI 53 Boston College. Midweek losses to the likes of Jacksonville on April 2 and the doubleheader split with the Dolphins on May 7 hurt. And then there’s the stunning no-hit loss at Stetson. FSU’s best RPI win is against No. 9 Louisville but it was accompanied by two blowout losses to the Cardinals.
Why FSU gets in: The Seminoles won 17 ACC regular-season games, which puts them among the six best teams in the league in the regular season. For reference, six ACC teams made the field in 2018 and seven ACC programs made it in 2017.
Why FSU misses out: The Seminoles have the ninth-best RPI in the ACC. Dropping a series at home to BC hurts, as does the lack of success in midweek games. A few more wins on Tuesdays and Wednesdays would have eased the anxiety this weekend.
National projections: FSU is viewed as a No. 3 seed in a regional at Baton Rouge, La., by Baseball America. The Seminoles are viewed as the No. 3 seed in a regional at Stillwater, Okla., by D1baseball.com.
What it may come down to: An argument can be made that the Seminoles didn’t do enough to earn a spot, at least they didn’t show consistency. If committee members view how a team finishes, FSU had two horrible losses at Louisville and went 1-1 in the ACC Tournament. Is Martin’s last year a factor for the committee? It shouldn’t be, but will it be in the back of the minds of those who pick the teams?